Photo by Nils Rasmusson on Unsplash
Forest fires bring death and destruction, yet they also catalyze the birth of new plant life. The fire clears the overcrowded underbrush to create space and opportunities for the next generation, a cycle necessary for the health of the forest. However, like so many things, the quantity matters. Too little fire and not enough space is created for the next generation, while on the other hand, too much fire and the entire forest burns down.
There are species of trees that thrive in this fiery environment, one such tree is the Giant Sequoia.
Giant Sequoias hold the record for the largest tree by volume, specifically General Sherman with a trunk volume of over 1,480 cubic meters (52,500 cubic feet). They can grow up to 85 meters (280 feet) tall, and their gorgeous red-brown bark can grow up to 60 centimeters (24 inches) thick. The thickness of their bark, and lack of flammable sap, make these mature Giant Sequoias resistant to most fires.
The reproductive process of the Giant Sequoia and forest fires are intimately linked. The cones of the Giant Sequoia are serotinous, meaning they require an external trigger — in this case, fire — to release their seeds. The heat of the raging forest fire causes these tightly sealed cones to dry out and open up, setting their seeds free. With the cleared forest floor and a fresh layer of nutrient-rich ash, these seeds have an opportunity to germinate and become the next generation of Giant Sequoias.
When you’re up close to a mature Giant Sequoia, you can often see the scars of past fires. You might be comforted knowing their offspring may be nearby
As I write this, I reflect on the ideas of resilience, adaptation, and creative destruction in the broadest sense. It’s August 2023, and some tangible form of AI is already here. Are humans like the Giant Sequoias, ready to use this power to our advantage, and to grow and develop beyond our current capabilities? Or are we like the old and dying underbrush that is about to be burnt away to make way for a new form of life?
Or is my analogy being stretched too far? Either way, I can’t help but feel a sense of uncertainty about the future, a mixture of both anxiety and excitement.
Our ancestors harnessed the power of fire and it has been the stuff of legend ever since. It unlocked even greater opportunities for humanity and fair to say that fire has been a net positive even factoring in its destructive nature 1.
Artificial intelligence is humanity’s newest fire! A fire that listens, speaks and creates. Some of the dangers of artificial intelligence are easy to imagine, more fake news and increased surveillance, while understanding the potential existential dangers requires a robust definition of intelligence and a basic understanding of the alignment problem.
Just as the immediate dangers are easy to imagine and the truly catastrophic ones difficult to pin down, the same pattern holds for the benefits of AI. The immediate benefits of AI are here already, a personal tutorial at your fingertips and the ability to generate new content with a faction of the effort. The truly awesome changes are difficult to predict.
Innovations as large and sweeping as the harnessing of fire, the invention of the atomic bomb or the creation of artificial intelligence force humanity to adapt to them in fundamental ways. Will AI burn too hot and destroy the entire forest, including the mighty Giant Sequoias? Will it usher in a new era of growth and prosperity? Or will it be regulated in such a way that it’s rendered useless?
Thirty years from now, we will likely know how this has played out but until then, prepare for change and try to have fun with it!
1 One possible way that the harnessing of fire might lead to the extinction of life on Earth (a net negative) is via the nuclear bomb, the ultimate expression of fire.